Economic Models for Turbulent Times Part I

Consider Crust

The Stata Center houses CSAIL, LIDS, and more.

Strange topology at MIT

Crust is an algorithm for reconstructing surfaces of any topology. In other words, it is a method for digitally rendering any 3-D shape, using data in three-dimensional space as input. Such methods garner a lot of attention now a-days. Graphical simulation models are increasingly prominent for visualization and testing purposes in the field of particle physics. World of Warcraft and Second Life rely heavily on computationally intensive computer graphics, and scalable distributed systems in general. Perhaps the most complex system of all is the U.S. economy, whose governance is partly guided by the results of mathematical models as part of monetary policy and fiscal planning.

Crust was developed as a collaborative effort between two staff scientists at Xerox PARC, now known as Palo Alto Research Center, and a doctoral candidate at MIT. None of this happened recently. In fact, Crust hasn’t been semantically linked with the word “new” since its debut at the 1998 ACM SIGGRAPH Conference.

What is so special about Crust? How is it relevant to global central banks and economic policy officials? What about the Federal Reserve Bank? Patience, please. Tarry a bit longer with me. All will be revealed.

The Crust algorithm is special because it has certain features uncommon in most quantitative models, yet highly sought after. First, the Crust algorithm offers results with “provable” guarantees. Given a “good sample” from a smooth surface, Crust’s results are guaranteed. That is, Crust guarantees that its output is topologically correct, converging to the original surface with increasing faithfulness depending on the input data’s sampling density.

MIT Pigtacular

Graphical Computation using the Crust Algorithm: An MIT PIG-tacular!

Crust has another interesting feature. The Crust research team was aware of how difficult it was to accurately model real world phenomena. They express such sentiments in their peer-reviewed academic publications. At least one was unusually receptive to the shortcomings of  mathematical models,  due to random events and interactions in the wild, e.g. unexpected co-linearity. Manolis Kamvysellis did much of the implementation and testing work on the Crust project. He was the third member of the team, studying for his Ph.D. at MIT. Happily, he had the good sense to demonstrate the algorithm via this fine pink pig! Let’s do the same.

Recall that Crust’s criteria for acceptable sample density is dynamic. Sample size is surprisingly intuitive! It depends on how dense the available data points are. A single topological surface, such as Piggy, may have very detailed surfaces. Observe this near Piggy’s ears and snout. Other areas like the hindquarters are quite featureless. Yet Crust dynamically adjusts its smallest acceptable sample size accordingly. Even minimally detailed surfaces such as Piggy’s lower hind legs above the hooves can be reconstructed accurately.

Manolis wrote a short-form version of the original ACM journal publication: A New Voroni Based Reconstruction Algorithm, click to download as a pdf file.  Google Chrome browser users may save directly to Google Docs, an option built into yesterday’s Chrome version 8.xxxx update.

To Be Continued….

Check back for Part 2 of Economic Models for Turbulent Times

Learn how and why crusty old Crust is relevant to the 2007 – 2010 economic and global financial crisis, and how it might be helpful going forward in 2011.

Second Life View and Reviewed

I have a mix of items about Linden Lab’s virtual world, Second Life, for today’s post. First let me emphasize how much I enjoy Second Life. Time in Second Life for me is excitement and delight interacting with people from around the globe, the opportunity to practice my foreign language skills, learn about other cultures and beliefs, history and couture, computing and technology, human nature and music, and have a wonderful time in general.

Reorganization and a different point of view

In early June, Linden Research reduced head count by 30%, and shuttered its business-targeted (enterprise) program.  Shortly after, then-CEO Mark Kingdon announced his departure from Linden Lab. Phillip Rosedale, the original creative force and founder of Second Life, returned as the interim CEO. The story was covered by The Wall Street Journal’s Digits blog column. I was dismayed by the abrupt corporate reorganization.

Second Life animals

Piggies of Second Life

This is an emotional response, and it reflects my personal preferences, and only that.  Sustained existence on “the bleeding edge” is not appealing to me. I wrote this in the comment section of WSJ’s Digits, June 24 2010 :

Mr. Rosedale has the charisma of an innovator. And Linden Lab corporate culture resembles many start-up’s: employees are enthusiastic, energetic advocates of something bold and new and wonderful. Which Second Life is, and somewhat continues to be.

It really is unfortunate that things didn’t work out with Mr. Kingdon, as Mr. Rosedale seemed more suited to the excitement associated with the conceptual aspects of his company. However, that excitement cannot be sustained day in and day out. Operating and maintaining the Second Life Grid, responding to customer service tickets and tending the online payment processing of a going concern is probably not thrilling for visionary types.

Lindens Depart

Second Life

If Linden Lab were a publicly held company, it would’ve been a very sensible move for Mr. Rosedale to focus on other endeavors. Mr. Kingdon should’ve been a good choice. He should’ve had the pragmatism and efficiency and savvy of a Wharton Business School graduate and experienced business man, which is what he is. If that had been the case, the Second Life platform would’ve been upgraded. A focused effort would’ve been made to keep the many users of Second Life, including corporate users, that were genuine advocates of virtual worlds AND paying customers generating stable revenue streams. There would’ve been a more effective social media campaign than the bizarrely dysfunctional Second Life blog and forum sites. Most of that was not to be. Now Mr. Rosedale is back. Things shouldn’t get any better at Second Life. I hope I am wrong.

*Actually, the JIRA for technical problem reporting is almost a social media vehicle for Second Life, which speaks volumes about the dedication to make things work RIGHT in Second Life, by  users and Linden Lab employees.

Second Life Jack Linden's Grave

Jack Linden's Grave

Behind the scenes: An insider’s view

Next, I wanted to share an excellent article from Conde Nast’s Ars Technica about the scalability challenges of web applications such as the Second Life grid . This lengthy and technically detailed piece was written by a former employee of Linden Lab, Ian Wilkes. It is not recent. The publication date was in February 2010, but I just happened upon it now.

It’s a long read, 5+ dense pages, but worthwhile. The comments are good reading too.

Published in: on July 4, 2010 at 9:34 pm  Leave a Comment  
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