Cornucopia of mathematics

This image was originally developed as the focal point of the Math Awareness Month poster of April 2000. The theme was “Math Spans All Dimensions”. It was too lovely to be retired, and appeared again at TFBCON2003.

Dimension Cornucopia via TFBCON2003

According to the artist, Brown University professor Thomas Banchoff, it is suffused with joy, just as I had hoped!

It begins with mere points, then a curve that flares into a spiral and eventually a colorful 3-d cornucopia of mathematical plenty:

…suggesting the possibility of further dimensions yet to come.

Professor Banchoff’s art work has even graced some book covers, including this one, written by my favorite statistician.

Published in: on February 27, 2015 at 12:33 am  Comments (2)  
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The EPA is not the Federal Reserve of oil markets

Energy market pricing behavior seems contrary to the relationship between supply and demand. The oddly behaving RIN market is an intermediate factor that influences gasoline prices for automobiles. RIN (Renewable Identification Numbers) should be decreasing. Instead, they are too high.

Bio-fuel pricing anomaly

RIN establish compliance with standards for non-fossil fuel usage, specifically, for corn-based ethanol as a blend in gasoline. In 2007, legislation was passed to encourage greater use of ethanol. The percentage requirement of ethanol is set by the EPA. It increases annually, and is calculated at an aggregate level, measured volumetrically, over all U.S. domestic consumption.

My favorite energy blog, Platt’s Oil Barrel, featured a guest post* by former Special Assistant to President Obama and Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change of the National Security Council Jason Bordoff, explaining anomalous RIN price behavior, and what the EPA is doing about it. He noted two reasons for the seemingly anomalous pricing.

Hitting the blend wall

Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) were revised in 2007, based on the assumption that gasoline usage would increase over time. In fact, it has not done so, not consistently. Instead, it decreased during 2011-2013, yet the schedule of increasing amounts of ethanol has remained, as legislated. As a result, according to Bordoff, we are now hitting the “blend wall”, when blenders physically cannot put enough ethanol into the gas supply to comply with RFS law.

Bordoff identified a second reason:

broad-based skepticism in the market that EPA will use its waiver authority to avoid the blend wall—even though EPA just went to unusual lengths to signal precisely that it will.

Federal Reserve v. EPA: Powers and purpose

The bio-fuel situation bears an odd resemblance to the rational expectations based logic of monetary policy. It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to effectively signal to markets, e.g. the anticipated (and appropriate!) end of quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve System has taken measures to increase transparency. Fed Governors Bernanke and Yellen hold scheduled press conferences. Bernanke was the first Federal Reserve governor to do so. The Fed was audited by the GAO in 2012. Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting notes are published and posted online.

The Fed also has the necessary tools to carry out monetary policy e.g. quantitative easing known as QE.

Despite all of the above, the “job creators” aren’t investing, and the Fed is now contemplating QE4. (more…)

Published in: on October 13, 2014 at 7:54 am  Comments (8)  
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Statistics comes to Swarthmore College

Some years ago, I studied mathematics and statistics. At that time, there was only one statistician among the mathematics department members, maybe the entire Swarthmore College faculty, Gudmund R. Iversen. He was my academic adviser. Professor Iversen was grey, tweedy and Norwegian. He always addressed me as Miss Kesselman, which helped alleviate my shyness at the time.

Professor Iversen got his PhD in statistics from Harvard University in 1969. I noticed only one other familiar name on that very short list of all Harvard Statistics PhD alumni: Columbia University political science and statistics professor Andrew Gelman PhD in 1990.

Lunch with Tufte

Professor Iversen had a group of colleagues, all statisticians from other academic institutions. They would visit Swarthmore to give lunchtime talks, or more typically, late Friday afternoon presentations to mathematical statistics students.

Diagram of Napoleon's Russian campaign by Minard

Napoleon’s March to Moscow. Charles J. Minard, 1869

I recall one particular guest statistician. Edward Tufte was on the faculty of Princeton University, and had recently written his first book, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. The venue was a small private room in Sharples dining hall. I was one of maybe 20 attending. (more…)

Just a Little Bit More Bitcoin Trouble

There has been so much tumult in bitcoin and crypto currencies over the past few days! Interest and concern extends far beyond arcane online communities. Motives vary.

screenshot of currency miner

Mining with Windows 7

Decentralized and anonymous

There are two conceptual pillars of trust that uphold bitcoin as being superior to fiat currency. The first is decentralization.

The fiat currency of reference is primarily the US dollar, for the time being. Why? Because the $US is the world’s reserve currency, for now. If Germany weren’t part of the EU, if Japan weren’t still in its lost decade and England weren’t so afflicted with problems, the Deutsche mark, Yen or British Pound Sterling would be attractive alternatives to the $US as a fungible, stable store of value.  As ideological (not market) confidence in the $US has diminished, the appeal of an apolitical, modern alternative increases. I won’t go off on a tangent as to why a currency printed by the U.S. Treasury in support of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy isn’t as highly esteemed as it was in the past. Obviously the $US dollar is a highly centralized currency.

The second conceptual pillar of bitcoin is anonymity. US dollars held as cash will be anonymous until one wants to use them for exchange for commercial transactions of size. Bitcoin has some anonymity short comings, too, but there may be tractable remedies.

Centralization of bitcoin

All markets are game theoretic. Bitcoin is more transparently so.  I really wish we could ask Professor John Nash what he thinks of bitcoin! Nash actually wrote a pleasant, accessible article about bitcoin-like currencies a few years ago.

I mention game theory because bitcoin’s most acute concern now is loss of decentralization. It is due to the documented, persistent existence of a 51% majority mining pool controlled by gHash.io. gHash is owned and operated by a private entity, cex.io. gHash’s market dominant behavior was noted in March 2014, but the situation was transient, unlike now. Monopolists, and cartels, can assert control as a function of mining power. See How a mining monopoly can attack bitcoin for a chart of strategies that mining pools can pursue as a function of hash power. It was recommended by Ed Felten in his post, Bitcoin mining now dominated by one pool.

Production and transaction costs

In theory, bitcoin is a perfectly smooth, zero transaction cost medium of exchange. (more…)

Published in: on June 17, 2014 at 12:41 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Public school education

Not an autodidact

My only education-related experience has been passive, as a recipient. From kindergarten through 12th grade, I attended public schools in Las Cruces, New Mexico. I loved learning algebra, calculus, chemistry, English literature, French, U.S. history, physics, drafting, home economics, and orchestra. I find it difficult to learn from self-instructional materials. Learning by doing is effective, but requires some guidance.

K-12 education

I perceive betrayal of public interest throughout the U.S.A., due to federal government educational policy. New York City is especially troubled. Exceptionally wealthy individuals with ZERO experience or training in education have decided that they know what is best for America’s children.

The 0.1% of the 0.1%

The Brookings Institute describes them as the 0.1% of 0.1% in assets. Assets held is a robust metric for gauging wealth. It is important to distinguish between wealth and income. Income fluctuates from year to year, even for the wealthy. Causes vary. Some have profound impact, such as significant reversals of fortune. Some are merely transitory, e.g. accounting losses reported in order to minimize impact of tax law changes. These 0.1% of 0.1% individuals choose to actively direct the projects that are beneficiaries of their philanthropy.

Philanthropy, education reform and charter schools

Most education reform activists, or perhaps investors, have no knowledge, nor experience in public school education. Rather, they are exceptionally capable leaders of global software conglomerates. Others have great prowess as hedge fund managers, venture capitalists or real-estate moguls. Several are Wal-Mart family scions. Education reformers who have children educate them at private schools like Philips Andover or Choate, yet they claim that charter school operators provide a superior education, compared to public schools in the U.S.A.

Comparison of charter and public ed chart

Statistically questionable comparison of charter versus public school performance via Wikipedia

(more…)

Published in: on May 17, 2014 at 9:28 am  Comments (9)  
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How to clean the Goo dot gl virus

computer virusThis is an example of an exceptionally false-positive computer virus concern. More accurate: General lack of having a clue.

How to clean the goo dot gl virus when you run it?

The worm spreads on Twitter as a link. Careful with this.

quora query

Computer Viruses: View the question and associated answers on Quora.

Published in: on December 21, 2012 at 4:54 am  Comments (4)  
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The problem with randomness

dilbert comic strip 2001-10-25

Random number generators: The devil is in the details

How to generate random numbers from spam

I found this the other day, via WPRandom:

Generating random numbers is pretty complicated if you need them for cryptographic algorithms. This software generates them based on spam comments…

It caught my eye as a sort of “spinning spam into RNG gold”, or more likely, PRNG (pseudo-random number generated) gold. Many WordPress blogs, whether self-hosted using WordPress.org or not, effectively use Akismet as a comment spam sieve. (more…)

Published in: on October 5, 2012 at 3:51 am  Comments (8)  
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SHODAN related infosec assortment

wiki defcon 2

The other Defcon

I never attended DEFCON, though it remains a dream I hope to realize one day, soon. It may soon become too logistically awkward due to increasing numbers of attendees.

Shodan is a remarkable search engine. Traditional search engines use “spiders” to crawl websites. Shodan culls data from ports. It was created by John Matherly in 2007. He continues to develop it.

Shodan is helpful for locating web server vulnerabilities. It is available as a free service, for up to 50 searches. Query syntax includes searches by country, host name, operating system and port. Shodan can search for software AND hardware. It has been acknowledged by mainstream media. The most prominent coverage was in early June, via The Washington Post, when Stuxnet received so much press attention.

Me and Shodan

Next is my Scribd infosec collection. It isn’t exclusively Shodan-related. This is why. (more…)

Published in: on June 13, 2012 at 9:24 pm  Comments (2)  
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Periodic Table Gallery

An exciting time for chemistry

Two new elements, flerovium and livermoreium, also known as Fl and Lv, and formerly known by the much blander names of ununquadium and ununhexium, have been approved for entry[1] into the Periodic Table of the Elements!

timmurtaugh via Flickr

The Periodic Tattoo of Elements

In honor of the event, I assembled a minor gallery of favorite periodic tables.

The children’s Periodic Table on the U.S. EIA site provides the basics. Better yet, it links to the Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) Periodic Table, which is just as impressive and complete as I would expect.

Mendeleev and Dave Hobart

Celebrating the 175th birthday of Mendeleev’s Periodic Table

While viewing, consider a recent post by senior LANL employee David Hobart, Actinide Analytical Chemistry, History of the periodic table…and my history with it, which was charming, as well as educational.

There is an “evolution of the table” section, facts about the table’s inventor, Dmitri Mendeleev, born 175 years ago[2], and this:

As the legendary physicist Richard Feynman put it, “If some universal catastrophe was to engulf the world and humankind could retain only one scientific concept to rebuild civilization, what would it be? The chemist’s answer is almost invariably the Periodic Table of the Elements.

Memorable periodic tables (more…)

Published in: on March 24, 2012 at 9:02 am  Comments (7)  
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Ad hoc text analytics

Twitter 2009

I found an old sentiment analysis application. It has very unglamorous packaging but a  good algorithm under the hood. I ran the Twitter user id’s of the brightest people I know. well, know of, who are active Twitter users. The assessment of “bright” was subjective by me.  All are acknowledged experts or advanced degree holders. Maybe half speak English as a second language, but are sufficiently articulate that their “essence”, well, intelligence shines through.

Guess what: It worked! I don’t know if anyone cares about this sort of thing, that really sharp successful people score well on this sentiment analysis indicator. That doesn’t necessarily mean it would have any predictive value. And no one seems to care much about this anyway. But what I’m saying is that most of these people only have okay-ish Klout scores e.g. 40’s. But they’re not trying to use Twitter for any particular social media purpose. Well, I don’t know that with certainty.

Published in: on February 13, 2012 at 6:00 pm  Comments (6)  
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