Taleb and the language of risk

Last night, I read about Nicholas Nassim Taleb on English Language and Usage StackExchange (EL&U). Professor Taleb wants to introduce a new word to the vocabulary of global financial collapse, antifragility:

So let us coin the appellation “antifragile” for anything that, on average, (i.e. in expectation) benefits from variability.

Consensus on EL&U was that this was a creative but unnecessary neologism. I echo the concerns of my EL&U comrades: Antifragility might cause confusion (maybe it is “anti-fragility”). There are many adequate, extant words that Taleb could use, however, antifragility is a term that will be uniquely associated with him.

I am not convinced that there are many entities that actually thrive due to uncertainty. A delta hedge that is long volatility is the only construct that I can think of off-hand. Perhaps that was what Taleb had in mind.

The original Black Swan

book cover of black swan with navy background

The Black Swan by Thomas Mann; 1954 UK First Edition

There was a slightly less contemporary black swan, the novella written by Nobel-prize winner Thomas Mann toward the end of his long and distinguished literary career.

The plot of that short fiction work also pertained to an anomalous event, one that could be considered a statistical outlier.

Anti-fragile

Alternatives to anti-fragile include robust, durable, survivable as in “survival of the fittest”, flexible, having high tensile strength, adaptable or tempered like Damascus steel. As others said on EL&U (“Is there an existing word for antifragility?”,

I don’t think there really is a single word term for something that breaks or dies or whatever when stress is removed from it. (Phoenix)

and

Taleb means resilient, but he’s confusing survival of the species/system with survival of the individual. In the end I see an almost wanton muddying of the difference between individual and “group” survival – where “group” could be any level from small partnerships to global corporations to capitalism to humanity itself. The higher levels effectively require potentially fatal changes to happen at lower levels – survival of the fittest is what drives evolution in the first place. (FumbleFingers)

I found a recent review of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, with a new section “On Robustness and Fragility”, on the Amazon website. Wading through Mediocristan is amusing, sarcastic, yet acknowledges the merits of Professor Taleb’s work.

Anyway, after the briefest of browsing on a search engine or two for antifragility, antonyms and humor, I found Fragile Web Development with SQL on Rails.

Digression

Rails gives you a pure-SQL development environment. Finally!

O'Reilly media parody book coverr

“SQL on Rails” an Oh Really publication

Who’s using SQL on Rails?

Everyone from startups to non-profits to tyrannical governments are using Rails. Rails is all about RDBMSs so it’s a perfect fit for absolutely every type of web application, be it software for organized crime collusion, pornographic content distribution, torrent tracking or even social networking.

What else do I need?

MySQL is the only stable option for SQL on Rails at the moment–the development team decided to tackle the gold standard first. However, work is underway to add support for a few more databases: DB2™, Fox Pro™, FileMaker Pro™, Sybase™ and Microsoft Excel™. Just about any operating system will do, but we recommend one with Minesweeper.

If you need hosting, ask around.

That was followed by COBOL on Cogs.

COBOL ON COGS

Audio-cassettes and binders full of printouts: Re-live Y2K today

Modern browsers will be tolerated but are unnecessary to view the COBOL on Cogs website in full green screen glory.

Click on the image here to view full-sized.

Published in: on February 1, 2012 at 6:28 am  Comments (8)  
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8 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. Good information, thanks, I appreciate your thinking.

    • Hello Mr. Geiger! It seems like a long time ago, when I first started following your comments in the WSJ. Thank you for stopping by to say hello today.
      Regards, Ellie

  2. Great post! Curious waht you think of this: http://soberlook.com/2009/06/black-swan-of-jeane-dixon.html

    • Hello, NarrowTranche! Thank you for the compliment. I will have a look. I think I did, in the past, and forgot to follow up with you. I need to write a follow-up post to this one. N.N. Taleb himself has issued a comprehensive definition of anti-fragility, so I really don’t have much excuse for berating him now. Well, less of an excuse ;)

  3. ‘Resilient’ does not at all include the property of ‘robust’ – think Sillyputty. Trying to create a term uniquely associated with an author is not particularly blame-worthy – as Shakespeare showed thousands of times.

    • Hello Lou,
      You are correct. I have had something of a change of heart regarding all of this. I found something, two items, written by N.N. Taleb, PhD, that caused me to revise my previous point of view. I will update accordingly. Thank you for your comment, and for visiting again. I appreciate it.

  4. I don’t think that “antifragility” quite captures the concept. If Taleb has an example in mind, it should be named after that … sort of like “Black Swan”. By the way, I enjoyed this post.

  5. Engineers have used the term “robust” to describe the best system that will work as desired in the presence of noise. I would be depressed if their term predates and envelopes “anti-fragile”.


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